LatticeMageOverfitting
可以看到有些人建議要學歷史，ex: 學歷史的大用：呂世浩(Shih-Hao Lu) at TEDxTaipei 2014
其中的理由是把自己放在當下環境的時候要如何做決策，再往後驗證。 這也跟許多成功學一樣說要去看成功者的過程。
會這樣講表示根本不懂Overfitting這件事。
有一個經典梗圖，1, 3, 5, 7, ?，請問下一個是甚麼?
答案是217341，因為這條數列的規律是
\[f(x) ＝ 9055.5 * x^4 - 90555 * x^3 + 316942.5 * x^2 - 452773 * x + 217331\]f(1)＝1 f(2)＝3 f(3)＝5 f(4)＝7 f(5)＝217341
這就是所謂的成功不可複製性，每個人的環境和腦都是不同的，就算前面可能有類似的情境，結果也是完全不同。
Overfitting例子不勝枚舉，有一個心理學實驗大致如下：
狗狗被放置於一個籠子里，中間由一道低矮的障礙物隔開。
一開始狗狗處在的一側通較低電壓，另一側高電壓，
狗狗只要跳過中間障礙物，就會遇到另一側更高電壓，然後馬上跳回原本的一側。
多次通電之後，狗狗學會趴在原地忍受。
當另一側高壓電關掉之後，如果狗狗跳過就不會再受電擊，
但是之前的經驗導致狗狗寧可在原處被電也不願跳去另一邊。
實驗給人的啟示大致是：「雖然之前挫敗，但是下一次還是有可能，不要放棄。」
有沒有發現這個結論可笑之處？
我今天給高電壓一側加強電壓，狗狗只要跳過就會死亡。
對此我可以給個結論：「這隻狗太聰明了，保住了自己的命沒有跳到另一邊。」
AI 生產
Overfitting is a phenomenon that occurs when a model or system becomes too closely tied to the specific data it was trained on, and therefore loses its ability to generalize to new situations.
Learned helplessness is a psychological phenomenon in which an individual becomes unable to escape or avoid a negative situation because they have come to believe that their actions have no effect on the outcome. This can occur when an individual is repeatedly subjected to an aversive or negative stimulus that they are unable to escape or avoid, even when the opportunity to do so is later presented.
Gambling fallacies are beliefs or assumptions about the outcome of a game of chance that are not based on factual evidence or sound reasoning. These fallacies can lead to poor decision-making and irrational behavior, and can result in financial losses.
Relying too heavily on historical data and experience can also lead to overfitting, as the world and the situations we face are constantly changing. This can cause us to make decisions that are not well-suited to the current context, and can lead to negative consequences.
In all of these cases, the potential drawbacks of overfitting arise when we become too closely tied to a particular perspective, approach, or set of data, and lose our ability to adapt to new situations or incorporate new information. This can prevent us from taking action to improve our situation or make informed and rational decisions.
To avoid the negative consequences of overfitting, it is important to recognize the limitations of any given perspective or approach, and to be open to new ideas and ways of thinking. By maintaining a flexible and adaptable mindset, we can make more informed and rational decisions, and avoid the pitfalls of learned helplessness, gambling fallacies, and other negative consequences of overfitting.
tags:
- [[Philosophy]]
- [[History]]
- [[Learned Helplessness]]